Overview of Document:
Since Pervez Musharraf’s resignation, Pakistan (PAK) has since transitioned to a democratic system of government. However, it is still a country divided and plagued by violence, both political and religious motivated. This publication briefly examines the fractured politics of PAK and the role Pakistani intelligence has played in this. If PAK expects to sustain a democracy, it will need to transfer control of the intelligence agencies and ensure that the military does not meddle into domestic politics.
There are three major sections to this publication:
1. A brief history of Pakistani intelligence agencies and some basic information regarding the different agencies: Military Intelligence (MI), Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the National Intelligence Directorate (DINA), the Intelligence Bureau (IB), and many more. Additionally, it provides some information on the intelligence agencies’ involvement in domestic politics, and the strategy of dividing and balancing different interest groups against one another to gain support. Essentially, the Pakistani intelligence agencies, while in competition with one another at times, are not rogue elements. Instead they have historically responded well to the orders of the military, namely the Chief of Army Staff (COAS). Previous attempts by civilian governments to regain control, and oversight over the intelligence agencies in accordance with the constitution have ended in failure. Civilian governments have shown a lack of knowledge in the field of intelligence, and appointees have been largely ignored and sidelined by the intelligence agencies.
2. A comparative analysis of PAK’s transition to democracy and the challenges it faces in reforming its intelligence agencies to those of Indonesia (IDN) and Chile (CHL). While neither IDN, nor CHL’s transition and reform has been perfect, they have made strides. Both IDN and CHL were authoritarian regimes during the Cold War, where their intelligence agencies were used to manage internal politics, conduct internal surveillance, and “deal” with dissidents. Since their democratization, both countries have approached the reform differently, and have gotten varied results. The idea is that there are lessons to be learned from those experiences that can be applied to PAK, and that PAK’s case is not particular.
3. The conclusion derives some lessons from IDN and CHL’s transitions. The main point to take from this is that any reform of the intelligence services will take quite a bit of time, and will need to take into account of the current balance of power within PAK. Recommendations are included.
Analysis and Review
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Reforming the Intelligence Agencies in Pakistan’s Transitional Democracy is not too difficult to read, except for the background information portion. Some existing knowledge of Pakistani history and politics will help, as the publication does not take time to explain it. Existing knowledge of Chilean and Indonesian would help for the comparative analysis portion, but not necessary as the publication does not delve to deeply in the politics of those nations.
The Pakistani intelligence agencies’ past history of using divide and conquer tactics to maintain a balance of power between special interests is problematic. However, past history has shown that the agencies do not have full control of them, and requires them to throw support behind splinter groups to balance rogue groups out. It becomes a vicious cycle. What makes this disturbing is that even after the return of democracy in Pakistan, changes are not being made.
Recently, the Pakistani Army has fought an offensive against the Taliban in the Northwest Frontier Province. For this, they have gained the support and backed splinter elements of the Taliban and other Islamic extremists. The vicious cycle continues.
The report also places a lot of the responsibility of the intelligence agencies’ behavior on the military. However, Fatima Bhutto, niece of the recently killed Benazir Bhutto, and daughter of assassinated Murtaza Bhutto, provides an interesting insight. Apparently the civilian governments are also not immune from using the intelligence and security agencies for political purposes. She believes that her father was assassinated with her aunt Benazir Bhutto’s knowledge (Murtaza Bhutto was a critic of Benazir and was campaigning against her). Her views on the matter can be found at: http://www.guernicamag.com/spotlight/1110/in_my_place/. She paints a bleak picture on the current president, Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto’s husband and successor to her campaign.
Pakistan is in a complicated situation, and as the US focus turns towards Afghanistan, PAK’s role will be one to watch. They can either be spoilers or stakeholders, but how PAK’s democracy develops from this point will determine this.
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The document is available at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website (http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22817&prog=zgp&proj=zsa). Minimalist erudite vade mecum does not distribute copyrighted material. Should the publication no longer be accessible, the user can contact the publisher of the document.
Filed under: Americas, Asia , Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Chile, Democracy, Indonesia, Intelligence and Security, ISI, Militant Groups, Pakistan, Reform, South Asia, Transitional Government
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